When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, global attention focused on energy markets. But alongside oil and gas, fertilizers quickly became a strategic lever — and sanctions on Russia and Belarus reshaped one of the world’s most concentrated supply chains. The disruption that followed showed just how exposed global agriculture is to geopolitics.
Potash at the Center
Belarus and Russia together account for roughly 40 percent of global potash exports. When Western sanctions restricted Belarusian exports, and later curtailed Russian flows, importing nations scrambled to find alternatives. Canada, the world’s largest producer, ramped up supply, while importers like Brazil and India struck deals with alternative suppliers. Prices surged as availability tightened, and freight routes shifted dramatically.
Nitrogen and Phosphates
The sanctions also hit nitrogen and phosphate trade. Russia is a major exporter of urea, ammonium nitrate, and DAP/MAP. Even when fertilizers were not directly sanctioned, restrictions on shipping, finance, and insurance made it harder to move Russian cargoes. Some buyers avoided Russian supply altogether to reduce compliance risks. Others, particularly in Africa and Asia, leaned in, taking advantage of discounted shipments.
Global Impacts
For Europe, the sanctions compounded an already dire situation: high gas prices had shut down local ammonia plants, forcing reliance on imports just as Russian supply was constrained. For Brazil, which sources a third of its fertilizers from Russia, the sanctions sparked urgent efforts to diversify, from Canadian potash to Moroccan phosphates.
For developing countries dependent on subsidized fertilizer imports, the shock meant higher prices and in some cases lower application rates, directly affecting food production.
What This Means
The fertilizer market was always global, but sanctions highlighted just how concentrated — and fragile — it is. Farmers in Kenya felt the effect of decisions made in Brussels. Coffee growers in Brazil saw their input costs swing with geopolitics in Minsk and Moscow. For an industry that relies on steady supply and predictable pricing, the realization was stark: fertilizers are as geopolitical as oil.
Outlook
The aftershocks of the sanctions are still playing out. Canada is positioning itself as the stable alternative for potash. New projects in Africa and Asia are gaining traction as countries try to localize supply. Russia and Belarus continue to export to non-Western markets, often at discounts, reshaping trade flows eastward.
But the core lesson remains: fertilizers are not just commodities, they are strategic resources. Sanctions proved that in a globalized food system, politics can matter as much as geology.
