Fertiliser production starts with a handful of raw materials — known as upstream feedstocks. Gas, phosphate rock, potash ore, and sulfur form the backbone of the $200B global industry.
Few industrial processes have shaped modern life as profoundly as the Haber–Bosch process. Developed in the early 20th century, it unlocked the ability to capture nitrogen from the air and convert it into ammonia — the foundation of all synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Without it, global food production could not sustain today’s population.
Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium — the three nutrients that underpin modern agriculture — are also among the most carbon-intensive inputs in the food system. Understanding the carbon footprint of NPK fertilizers is essential for anyone thinking about sustainable farming, climate change, and the future of global food production.
Few terms are as buzzy in agriculture right now as “low-impact fertilizers.” It captures the ambition to maintain productivity while reducing environmental harm. But what exactly makes a fertilizer “low impact,” and why is it increasingly central to the future of farming?
The European Union has set one of the world’s most ambitious environmental agendas. Through the European Green Deal and its Farm to Fork strategy, Brussels is seeking to cut pesticide use by 50%, fertilizer losses by 50%, and nutrient use overall by 20% by 2030. For an industry built on maximizing yields, the targets amount to a structural shift.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, global attention focused on energy markets. But alongside oil and gas, fertilizers quickly became a strategic lever — and sanctions on Russia and Belarus reshaped one of the world’s most concentrated supply chains. The disruption that followed showed just how exposed global agriculture is to geopolitics.
When a farmer applies fertilizer to a field, the bag or bulk load they’re spreading has already passed through one of the most complex supply chains in global agriculture. From deep mines in Canada to ammonia plants in Trinidad and blending facilities in sub-Saharan Africa, fertilizers travel across continents before reaching the soil. Understanding that journey is key to making sense of costs, risks, and opportunities in the industry.
One of the reasons fertilizer markets can feel so opaque is that not all fertilizers are priced the same way. Some trade like commodities, moving daily with global indices. Others are priced more like products, negotiated between suppliers and buyers with little visibility. Understanding the difference is key to making sense of why urea might be quoted in shipping reports like oil, while complex NPK blends feel more like buying a car.
Fertilizer is food, and energy is fertilizer. The world’s dependence on natural gas, coal, and oil makes fertilizer prices some of the most volatile in agriculture. Here’s why a spike in gas in Europe or coal in China can ripple all the way to a farmer’s budget — and eventually to the price of bread.
